Starting Rotation Evaluations

So, this week's blog is an evaluation of the Giants pitchers, and similarly to the post about the position players I will be giving each pitcher a grade compared to the expectation of them.  Since the pitching staff is so good, assume that my opinion is that we should keep them all unless I specifically name pitchers that should not be kept. I will cover most of the starting rotation as well as the bullpen next week.  So, without further ado, let's get started:

Tim Lincecum
13-14, 2.74 ERA, 217 innings

Tim Linecum had a good year, not one of his best but that's understandable seeing how much stress he was under when he was pitching.  Lincecum is simply the Giants' best pitcher and one of the best if not the best pitcher in the National League.  He can absolutely shut down an offensive juggernaut, like the Rangers in the World Series last season.  The story of Lincecum's year is the lack of run support.  Normally, you would assume that a 13-14 pitcher would have an ERA above 4.00 and less than 200 innings.  However, when you see a pitcher that has  a very good 2.74 ERA and over 200 innings still is 13-14, you can assume that the offense has not held up their end of the bargain.  Lincecum has shown that last year's regular season was an aberration, and now the Giants expect many good years in the future for good 'ol Timmy Jim.
Grade: A-


Matt Cain
12-11, 2.88 ERA, 221.2 innings

Matt Cain, although only a shade under 27 years old, is unbelievably the longest tenured Giant.  And the Giants hope to keep it that way.  Matt Cain is horse of the starting staff and is almost always consistently good.  Although this cannot be shown in statistics persay, it can be seen by watching Matt Cain's starts over the course of a season.  In contrast to Timmy, who is either lights out or hittable, Cain always seems to be steady and be the same guy every time he gets out on the mound.  This is the kind of pitcher the Giants need to get wins because if any pitcher gives up more than 4 runs, the game is pretty much over.  Matt Cain is the guy that can always keep the game in reach.
Grade: A

Madison Bumgardener
13-13, 3.21 ERA, 204.2 innings
Bumgardener is simply a big strong country 21-year old kid, another horse for the Giants.  He strutted his stuff especially towards the tail end of the season when he was not affected by the wear and tear of the season.  Last year, he did not pitch that many innings and his durability could have been rightfully questioned.  This year, he proved his doubters wrong and the last thing the Giants are worrying about is Madison Bumgardener.  He does have some blowups, like the 8 run first inning against the Minnesota Twins, but with maturation, that should sort itself out.  Bumgardener will be an especially potent play-off pitcher because of his power arm and the fact that he will not be worn down by the toil of the season.  Another great product of the Giants great farm pitching system.
Grade: A

Ryan Vogelsong
13-7, 2.71 ERA, 179.2 innings
Ah, Ryan Vogelsong, the Giant feel good story of the year.  The 33 year-old journeyman, who has been with 5 teams in his career and was originally drafted by the Giants was hindered by a shoulder injury in the early part of his career.  In the minors, he reworking his mechanics until he relied on his location instead of his power.  After being called up from the minors after Barry Zito went down with a foot injury, Ryan Vogelsong performed magnificently and was arguably the Giants best pitcher at certain periods of time.  The one question about Ryan Vogelsong is his durability, it was obvious that he was struggling with fatigue towards the end of the season.  Hopefully, last season will have built up his arm strength and endurance for the next season.  It would be a even better story to follow up last season with a similar one.
Grade: A+

I will now pretty much give a basic summary of the pitchers that "filled in" at certain times in the fifth spot in the rotation:

Jonathan Sanchez: 4-7, 4.26 ERA, 101.1 innings
Brian Sabean, the general manager has expressed that he wants Sanchez to fill the fifth spot in the rotation this coming season.  Seeing that there were really no spots for him last season, Sanchez was confined to the bench of Triple-A Fresno for the season.  This perhaps, could be demoralizing for the young man.  But, all the Giants fans are hoping him to return to the dominant pitcher that everyone knows he can be.  Jonathan Sanchez is an incredible swing-and-miss pitcher and if he can limit his walks, which usually lead the league, he can become one of the best pitchers in the Giants rotation.
Grade: C-

Barry Zito

3-4, 5.87 ERA, 53.2 innings
Simply put, Barry Zito had an awful season and it must have been humiliating to be paid about 20M a year and get throw in the bullpen as a blow-out long reliever.  But still, it was warranted and it looks as though he will fill that same role this coming year.  From what I have seen, he has done an admirable job in the long relief role and could fill that spot for the Giants so the Giants won't have to spend money on resigning a pitcher or signing a free agent.  What Zito needs to realize is that his prime is gone and it's his job to help the team in anyway possible.
Grade: D-

Eric Surkamp

2-2, 5.74 ERA, 26.2 innings
Towards the end of the year, the Giants needed a fifth starter, so they decided to go with  a young Southern kid that was absolutely tearing up Double-A Richmond.  The first few starts, he was dominant mixing it up perfectly with a big swooping curveball and an accurate fastball.  However, in his last few starts, he had to be pulled early are teams put up big numbers on him.  Obviously, as seen by his first few starts, he has talent.  However, as much talent as he has, it is unrefined and Brian Sabean has said that Surkamp needs more seasoning in the minors and looks to factor more into the future than anything else.
Grade: D

So that wraps up the starting pitchers.  Evidently, the Giants have a fantastic starting rotation, having the second best ERA in baseball.  The Giants have a incredible 1-4 lineup that consists of Lincecum, Bumgardener, Cain, and Vogelsong that can go toe to toe with any 1-4 pitchers in the MLB.  The one question mark is the fifth spot, but that assuredly be filled with a serviceable pitcher.  Assuming that Brian Sabean is able to keep the pitching rotation intact as far as the contracts go, the main concern, once again, will be the offense rather than the pitching.

Free Agent Class 2012: Shortstops

The Giants are in obviously in the market for shortstops, the experiment they conducted at shortstop last year was a miserable failure.  First was Miguel Tejada (.239 with 4 HRs and 26 RBIs in 322 ABs), whom they released part way through the season, second was trading for Orlando Cabrera (.241 with 1 HR and 13 RBIs in 126 ABs), and finally they finished the season with Brandon Crawford, a rookie who has many defensive skills but lacks offense, due mostly impart to his short amount of time in the minors.  GM Brian Sabean has expressed that Brandon Crawford still has a lot to work on in the minors, so it's pretty evident that they will acquire a shortstop over the offseason.  The question however, is if they go for a big time free agent shortstop or just be content to patch up the spot with a one-year deal like they have been doing for the past half a decade.

Here are all the 2012 free agent shortstops:
Clint Barmes (33)
Yuniesky Betancourt (30) - $6MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Orlando Cabrera (37)
Jamey Carroll (37)
Ronny Cedeno (29) - $3MM club option with a $200K buyout
Craig Counsell (41)
Rafael Furcal (34) - $12MM club option with a $1.3MM buyout
Alex Gonzalez (34)
Jerry Hairston Jr. (36)
Cesar Izturis (32)
John McDonald (37)
Nick Punto (34)
Edgar Renteria (35)
Jose Reyes (29)
Jimmy Rollins (33)
Ramon Santiago (32)
Marco Scutaro (36) - $6MM club option/$3MM player option with a $1.5MM buyout
Jack Wilson (34)

If you anything about these names, they are not pretty, the free agent class for shortstops is slim and ought to be somewhat expensive due to the need for good hitting shortstops.  I however, will narrow it down to the best options for the Giants as well as disregarding players whose club options the team will surely pick up, i.e. Marco Scutaro.

(Batting Average/On-base Percentage/Slugging Percentage)

Jamey Carrol (37)
.290/.359 /.347 with 0 HRs and 17 RBIs.
Jamey Carrol is not the name that jumps off the page and makes people want to come to games, he has little to no power, hitting 12 HRs in his 9 big league seasons, he is not an RBI guy, and he is definitely not in the prime of his career. But he does one thing well, he gets on base, his on-base percentage is higher than all the Giants players that aren't named Carlos Beltran.  Also, Carrol is the kind of guy that doesn't tail off as much at the end of his career. The power hitters are the hitters that tend to lose their power quickly.  However, these on-base contact hitters, aren't affected by age as much.  Another positive to Carrol is the fact that you could get him for very cheap, probably around 2M.  This especially resonates after watching the movie Moneyball, in which Billy Beane was able to succeed with little money due to getting underrated players for cheap.  Since Jamey Carrol does not have big RBI or HRs other GMs may look over him and you can get him for very little money.

Jimmy Rollins (33)
 .268/.338/.399 with 16 HRs and 63 RBIs
Jimmy Rollins, an Alameda, CA native is also a very nice option, although he will command a much greater amount due to his track record.  By getting Rollins, they would fill three gaping holes in their lineup, 1. the shortstop and 2. the leadoff hitter 3. speed (he has 30 SBs this year).  Getting one player to fulfill three different needs is a very cost effective way of improving the team.   Jimmy Rollins is almost all positives, he has postseason experience, he is good with the glove, winning 3 Gold Gloves in his career, and also he knows the Phillies well since he has spent every year of his 11-year career with them.  The Phillies are a juggernaut postseason rival and they make perennial playoff appearances, this year posting a 102 win record.  Any advantage that Rollins could give them in forms of advice would be welcomed.  Jimmy Rollins is a winner, amazingly, he has made the playoffs every year of his career and that winning attitude will be a needed antidote for the disappointment that the 2011 brought.

Jose Reyes (29)
 .337/.384/.493 with 7 HRs and 44 RBIs.
Jose Reyes the best shortstop on the market.  Period.  He has two huge positives, he hits for average, as seen by the astronomically high .337 average, he has speed, 39 SBs this year and one year, having an insane 78 SBs, and he is in his prime.  Since he's not a power hitter, the spaciousness of AT&T park will work to his advantage rather than his detriment.  But these positives are also accompanied by two large negatives for the Giants, money and injuries.  Jose Reyes is going to get paid a lot, which is the understatement of the century.  My guess is that he will get around 20M a year for many years even though he has a track record of numerous injuries.  The Giants simply do not have enough money as it is, their payroll for 2011 almost reached 120M.  And likely, even if the Giants do not make ANY improvements to the offense, the payroll will be higher than last year due to paying the pitchers to stick around in San Francisco.  Brian Sabean has said that they won't be going after any huge big agents like Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols, and Jose Reyes definitely fits in that category.  I don't like beating a dead horse, but just imagine that Sabean hadn't signed Zito and Rowand to those massive contracts.  The Giants would have ample money to go after one, if not two of those free agents.   Appalling, it really is.

So, what I think the Giants should do is just court Jose Reyes to test the water and see what other teams offers are, and if they see that they have a shot at bringing him by the bay, then they should jump on that.  However, as Sabean should have learned by now, jumping out of your shoes to pay huge bucks to a player doesn't always pay off.  Meanwhile, they should be trailing Jimmy Rollins like a mad dog and hope that the Phillies don't resign him because he is the perfect fit for this Giants team.  He is a leadoff shortstop that won't come over for too too much, 8-9 million is probably the price range for him.  Finally, if the Phillies end up re-signing Rollins, which they probably will, the third choice would be Jamey Caroll, who isn't great in any sense of the word, but one of the best deals on the weak shortstop market.  The biggest advice, however for the Giants and Brian Sabean is to be smart, Giants fans are tired of seeing the Giants year after year replace mediocre old shortstop with mediocre old shortstop.  It's time too stop looking how good players were in the past and hope that they repeat that, and time to start looking how their performing now.  Please, Giants, don't give us another Edgar Renteria, Orlando Cabrera, or Miguel Tejada.  This team deserves better.